Too big to fail? Comparing effect sizes of MDMA assisted therapy to unmasking bias

Unmasking bias—where participants or researchers can guess who received a treatment due to its noticeable effects—may account for the reported benefits of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD. Analyzing data from trials of ketamine and escitalopram, the authors found that the magnitude of unmasking bias is larger than the treatment-versus-control effect size observed for MDMA. This indicates that MDMA-AT's effect sizes are not too large to be explained by unmasking alone, though the findings do not prove that the effects are entirely or partially due to this bias.

Study at a glance

Abstract

On August 9th the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) rejected 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine assisted therapy (MDMA-AT) as a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), despite seemingly positive trial results. A major reason cited was functional unmasking, which combined with enthusiasm about MDMA, raised concerns about the objectivity of these trials. Here, we define what is 'unmasking bias' and calculate its magnitude for two drugs, ketamine and escitalopram, where data was available from the literature. Our results show that unmasking bias is larger than the treatment vs control effect size for MDMA. These findings do not prove that effects of MDMA-AT are entirely or even partially due to unmasking, however, our findings do indicate that MDMA-AT’s effect sizes are not too large to be due to unmasking.