Why Uncertainty Is Essential for Consciousness: Local Prospect Theory vs. Predictive Processing.

Local prospect theory (LPT) proposes that consciousness relies on uncertainty, not just accurate prediction. The brain creates a "local prospect"—a range of possible futures shaped by subjective experience—from which an agent freely chooses how to respond. Consciousness is a self-sustaining loop of neural activity that forms a temporary working memory, allowing thoughts and feelings from different brain modules to interact non-linearly, unlike automatic unconscious processes. Entropy-based measures, such as the determination of actions by conditions and the breadth of prospect, quantify the range of considered possibilities. The framework explains Buddhist mindfulness and meditation as broadening consciousness and reducing automatic reactions by lessening conditioning. The prospect measure could be operationalized through action variety, perception breadth, and behavioral unpredictability for empirical testing.

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Abstract

We present and develop local prospect theory (LPT), a novel framework for understanding consciousness, and, in particular, subjective experience and free will. While predictive processing (PP) theories model the brain as trying to optimize the accuracy of predictions, LPT sees uncertainty as an essential feature of conscious decision-making. This is achieved by creating a "local prospect"-a range of potential developments colored by subjective experience from which an agent can freely choose how to react. Drawing on global workspace theory, LPT conceptualizes consciousness as a self-maintaining process of circulating neural activation, creating a temporary working memory where thoughts and feelings coming from different brain modules enter into an asynchronous, non-linear interaction. This contrasts with unconscious processes, which operate automatically and deterministically. LPT proposes entropy-based measures, including the determination of actions by conditions and the breadth of prospect, to quantify the range of potential developments considered. This framework allows us to understand Buddhist practices and concepts, such as mindfulness, liberation from attachments, and meditation, which broaden consciousness and de-automatize reactions by reducing the influence of conditioning. The proposed prospect measure may be operationalized by indicators such as the variety of action, breadth of perception, and unpredictability of behavior, thus allowing for the empirical testing of the theory.